Boat dealers and brokers reported strong consumer interest at the January Seattle Boat Show, but the sales have been slow to follow.

Washington state’s beleaguered boating industry isn’t likely to see significant improvement until 2013, one industry expert predicts.

But Paul Sorensen of consulting firm BST Associates said there’s potential for sustained growth in boating as the state’s population continues to grow.

Speaking during the 10^th Annual Northwest Marina Conference in Everett last week, Sorensen said it will take time from the boating industry to recover from the devastating impacts of the nation’s recession, which caused household incomes to plummet and shattered consumer confidence.

“We’re leaning toward a gradual recovery,” Sorensen told the audience gathered at the Comcast Arena. “Any time you’ve been hit this hard, it takes time to see a gradual change. I think growth will be slow in 2011, a little better in 2012, and in 2013 and beyond it should start to pick up.”

While personal income has started to rebound in Washington state this year, Sorensen said it will likely take until 2013 for employment to be restored to 2008 levels. And until the jobs return, consumers will remain reluctant to spend. Consumer confidence and interest rates are the major determinants for people buying boats in the 20- to 35-foot range, Sorensen said, while confidence in the economy and stock markets drive buyers of boats 35 feet and up.

Going forward, Sorensen said, boat sales will also depend on how much demand has been satisfied by aggressive discounting on surplus inventory of boats over the past couple of years. A decision by Congress about whether or not to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for wealthy taxpayers will also impact the boating market, Sorensen said, as will the industry’s ability to convince Gen Y consumers — those born between 1977 and 1995 — that boating is as cool as snowboarding or other recreational pursuits.

Participation in boating has fallen sharply nationwide, from about 90 million adults involved in boating in 1990 to around 70 million last year.  And consumers have been spending less on boats, with used powerboat sales increasing from 85 percent of the total in 2005 to 90 percent last year, and used sailboat sales rising from 87 to 91 percent during the same period.

Not surprisingly, expenditures on high-ticket recreational items such as boats and snowmobiles have dropped sharply since 2007, while spending on recreational equipment, footwear and clothing has remained fairly constant. Correspondingly,  Washington consumers have been spending far less money at marinas than they have at fitness clubs, golf courses, skiing facilities and even bowling alleys — while spending at casinos rose consistently for more than a decade before leveling off in 2008.

“There’s obviously a lot of competition for how amusement dollars are spent,” Sorensen noted.

Still, he said there’s reason to be hopeful about the state’s boating industry. Washington has about twice as many boats per 1,000 people as the U.S. overall and its rate of boat ownership is growing faster than its population.

The state’s population grew 1.5 percent between 1996 and 2009, Sorensen said, the same rate of growth for registered boats between 26 to 39 feet. The number of registered boats 40 to 65 feet grew 2.5 percent during that period, while registrations of boats more than 65 feet long jumped 10 percent.

Washington is expected to add another 870,000 residents by 2020, Sorensen said, which could mean more than 3,000 additional boats of 26 feet and up statewide.  To accomodate that many additional boats would require two marinas the size of Shilshole, one of the state’s largest recreational boating facility.

Consumers are more cautious these days, Sorensen said, buying less impulsively and doing more research before making a purchase. Luckily, he said, consumers are not moving away from boating but are looking for ways to make it more affordable, such as doing repairs themselves and spending less on accessories.

For the state’s boating industry, Sorensen said, that means continuing to ride out the downturn and in the meantime, strengthening relationships with existing and potential customers.

 “The focus will be on providing value and exceptional service and waiting for the consumer to catch up,” he said. “We’ve reached the bottom and we’re starting to move forward.”

About Deborah Bach

Deborah Bach is the editor and co-founder of Three Sheets Northwest. She is an avid sailor and long-time professional journalist. You can find Deborah aboard Three Sheets, an Island Packet 38, with her husband Marty and their cat Lily.

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